A Perfect Storm Brewing: Flu Season Plus A COVID-19 Resurgence

I was asked by a colleague what I thought influenza seasonal infections coupled with a predicted second wave of COVID-19 would look like locally? Influenza A arrives locally around Thanksgiving and peaks the last two weeks in January and first two weeks in February. I suspect it is fueled by seasonal visitors coming to Florida bringing the disease from their home locales. We see a low level of influenza B year- round in our pediatric population.

A full-page ad appeared in all Florida newspapers today sponsored by every major health system in the state including Baptist, Tenet, HCA, Cleveland Clinic, Broward Health, Jackson, U M Health, Memorial Health and others. It stressed wearing masks, social distancing and frequent hand washing.

If you get sick with mild symptoms, they encourage remote telehealth care. If you have moderate symptoms, they suggest going to their urgent care facilities. For severe symptoms call 911 or go to the ER. At no time did they suggest calling one of their employed physician offices or visiting your private doctor which is all consistent with CDC recommendations. Private independent and employed physicians just don’t have the ventilation systems, sanitizing systems, personal protective equipment or trained staff to see potential COVID patients in their offices. If a patient is positive, or a staff member converts, what is their responsibility to the next patient or to the other tenants of their building? Is a 14-day quarantine in order?

Much depends on unknown factors. How effective will this year’s flu shot be? In my area, the chain pharmacies already received their supply of influenza vaccine and have shamelessly been pushing it on customers since July. Scientific research shows that in senior citizens the flu shot immunity begins to subside 90 days after you receive the shot. Given that, if your pharmacy tech gives you the flu shot in September, then how much immunity will you have by the time the flu arrives around Thanksgiving?

Quick, accurate and inexpensive testing availability for flu and COVID 19 is an important factor as well. We have had a quick influenza test for years requiring a nasopharyngeal swab. A similar test for COVID -19 has just been released by Abbott Labs and received Emergency Utilization Authorization from the FDA. That means Abbot Labs researchers say it works and the FDA takes them at their word. This test, called “a game changer” by many, will be available in October.

When $15 per hour medical assistants start performing the test rapidly, in volume, I hope the accuracy results are similar to Abbots claims. Our health and lives depend on that. At the same time a finger stick blood drop test is heading to market to quickly detect flu and COVID -19 on the same test card. Finnish scientists and Israeli researchers have quick breathalyzer tests coming soon as well. I hope they work and get here soon. I will test everyone at the door as will restaurants, theaters, sports arenas and most businesses.

All of this information really skirts the issue. With no treatment and vaccines available yet, I expect this flu COVID-19 season to be a human health disaster. With no national plan in place and no close coordination with state and local elected and public health officials, I see the fall and winter as a time of continued disease surges and deaths while the political influence on disease treatment supersedes scientific research and public health realities. Without a coordinated program of PPE and medication distribution, coordination of testing availability and results with contact tracing and specific shutdowns of hot spots without challenges related to loss of freedoms the outlook is grim.

Protecting senior facilities without a coordinated program and funding for it will not work for residents or employees. Opening schools and day care without similar precautions, training and funding for materials and tracing will lead to hotspots as well. There are members of the student population such as special needs children who need to return too, in person, learning safely and creatively. Others need to learn remotely or be given a chance to catch up later when safe return to in person learning is possible.

Without a plan to assist renters, homeowners, landlords, small business owners, farmers, restaurateurs, etc.; any shutdown for disease will be met with overwhelming resistance. I see a bleak and dangerous health picture developing in the fall/winter creating a perfect influenza/COVID storm.  I hope I am wrong but, if right, the disease surge will overwhelm ERs and hospitals.